U.S. Agencies See No Move by Iran to Build a Bomb is in this morning’s New York Times and provides the other side of the whole matter. The column brought one very BIG and IMPORTANT question to my mind so I wrote one of the author’s hoping to get there thoughts:
Interesting article. One big question came to mind when reading your column and that is “How many countries have went the work of uranium enrichment that have not later developed a weapon?” I’d greatly appreciate your answer and thoughts. Thanks, Kevin
If you are a country and are pretty much a neighbor of another country that has repeatedly expressed the desire to see your nation wiped off the face of the earth AND that country starts messing with enriching uranium would you not deem it a wise decision on your part to eliminate that country’s ability to enrich uranium? Who cares if it is for peaceful purposes? Ultimately it is a required step to get to the means to wiping your nation off the earth. If Iran actually wants peaceful uranium enrichment it can be provided for them by purchase. If Iran actually wants to be treated as a civilized nation it needs to cease the hate speech and threats – then over a period of time where some diplomatic channels of goodwill are opened between the nations maybe the world would feel okay with a nuclear Iran. But while it is shaking its fists and foaming at the mouth hatred and threats that time is not now.
Debka article on crisis in US-Israeli relations over nuclear talks with Iran
The gist is that not only Israeli government but also a bipartisan group of US senators feel that a back channel exchanges held in privacy between O administration and Iran government leaders will result in:
- communication while Iran continues its nuclear program instead of freezing
- US pushing for some slack on sanctions as reciprocal action for Iran to freeze nuclear program
- ending in the result that sanctions will slack but Iran will continue in secrecy (until caught) working with its nuclear program
In private conversations, Netanyahu has said he feels cheated. By its actions the Obama administration leaves Israel with no recourse other than to grapple with the Iranian menace on its own, he has said, and be less sensitive to Washington’s wishes.
The result of tension between the two countries? O decided to send his US National Security Adviser Tom Donilon to an urgent visit to Israel Saturday, Feb. 18, for three days of talks “on regional issues including Syria and Iran.”
For those who have followed US and Russia cold war history what is being replayed is the Nixon, Ford and Carter years of so called diplomacy with Soviet Union over nuclear weapons. What happened during those years was the US would sign treaties or pacts with SU to eliminate certain classes of nuclear weapons technology and then the US would fulfill its end while SU didn’t. This resulted with US strategically inferior in nuclear and military defense to SU by the time Carter was president. This period of time also resulted in the Peace thru Strength program of presidential candidate Ronald Reagan. He provided the data everywhere to anyone on the decline of the US military and bad faith build up of Russia. His solution was simple > military build up in the US until the US was significantly superior understanding that such a strategy would cripple the Russian economy because it could not spend what it did not have. Then from a position of strength negotiate systemic changes of the cold war mentality which led the government selection of Gorbachev and his understanding of the need for real peace and reform in the Soviet Union. Reagan’s cornerstone approach “trust but verify”.
What is done in secret is unable to be verified so one does not act until verification is real.
O will simply bungle through and repeat the actions of Nixon-Carter which will result in Iranian buildup and technology increases while playing around at diplomacy.
From Debka: By suddenly stating, contrary to all informed estimates, that Iran’s nuclear arms program has not yet reached the point of no return, Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak implied that Israel was in no hurry to strike its nuclear facilities, a message for which Washington has been angling for months.
In a Kol Israel interview from Turkey, Thursday, Feb. 16, the defense minister’s pronouncement contradicted every reliable evaluation, including those of Military Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi on Feb. 2 and his predecessor Amos Yadlin who wrote on Jan. 26 that Iran had passed the point of no return four or five years ago. But his words were a perfect fit for the recent assertions by US President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta that Israel had not yet made up its mind to attack Iran.
Kochavi’s information was detailed: He reported that Iran had amassed 10 kilos of 20-percent enriched uranium and four tons of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent. In his view, nothing remains to stop Iran building a bomb but a decision by its ruler. Once taken, Iran’s nuclear program could produce its first bomb or warhead by the end of this year or early 2013 and four or five by 2015.
The defense minister backtracked on a second issue: While noting that Iran was scattering or burying its nuclear facilities to “impede a surgical strike,” he avoided his previous estimate that no more than three to six months were left before all those facilities had been hidden in what he himself called “zones of immunity.”
full article here
So what does this mean? My guess is that this was not so much a changing of mind but Israel’s way of doing two things:
1. O and many of his government – as well as leaders in other countries – believe that the sanctions are now working and that Iran is willing to talk as long as they save face in doing it. The head of Iran does not want to be perceived by his country’s citizens as bowing to the chief Satan and little Satan (US & Israel). What he will require is a resolution that will make him look powerful and victorious in talks with the rest of the world involving the nuclear issue. By Barak begrudgingly clarifying their evaluation of the matter it tells the other countries they have some time to allow sanctions to crush the internal works of Iran and get dialogue going without the worry that overnight Israel unilaterally attacks Iran making their overtures and any dialogue worthless.
2. Building on #1 this is yet another way that Israel is going to show that Iran is actually stalling and has no serious desire to work with the Satans of the world. This in Israel’s eyes will be the final period of grace given and last chance for so-called diplomacy to resolve the Iran nuclear issue.
What an absolute waste. What a loss of talent.
The links are abundant on Drudge Report tying to updates surrounding the death of Whitney Houston.
I can’t help but think of Michael Jackson’s death and others who were so talented and frittered it way over the use of drugs.
It was a horrible day the day she accepted her first date with the thug and loser Bobby Brown. No doubt she was attracted to the bad boy image when she was portrayed as clean and good. I believe it is the picture of what is the norm in life and that is the general rule (so of course there will be the odd – exception) – and that is the bad always drags down the good it is not the other way around. And when one has an upbringing of good and avoids the trappings of drugs and alcohol and then tips their toe in the way too deep in – when they get in it is overwhelming and traps them and drags them to the bottom.
Another subject matter dear to my heart that I SO want to write a book on is the Circle of Influence. The MJ, Whitney of the world and you & I are no different – the power for good or bad of our circle of influence. I think of Elvis, John Bonham, Phil Lynott, and so on…. If only they had a strong, moral circle of influence around them they would probably be here today and produced much more music, good memories, and so on. They would have had long relationships with their children and maybe even grandchildren…
What a tragic loss…