An article in today’s NYT “To Calm Israel, US Offers Way to Restrain Iran”.
2 cents:
The reality is that Israel has learned unless it holds the president of the USA over a fire, nothing will be done in reference to Iran. The previous administration did very little about the Iran dynamic which Israel did little if anything to push the USA government and the world to the Iran nuclear reality. NOW Israel has determined the formula to make Iran’s nuclear ambitions a global matter. And of course, they are right – it is a global matter.
As the writer points out, the CES has allowed Iran to dictate the course of the matter. And as Israel had pointed out, Iran has used the supposed channels of diplomacy to actually stall military action against them while allowing them to burrow far into the earth and continue to make nuclear material. What has happened over the past three years is that Iran has multiplied their centrifuges and increased potency of the nuclear production. They have managed to move if not all at least most of their production facilities far below the earth – out of harm’s way from most conventional weapons. They are at the stage where Israel and the USA agrees that a military option simply delays production a couple years; meaning their nuclear manufacturing infrastructure is here to stay.
So considering this what is the plan? It is my opinion that the CES deliberately delayed military action while holding if not threatening Israel not to act so that eventually (which is where we are now) an Israeli military unilateral action would not have the devastating impact desired. For a real devastating strike it would then require USA military and cooperation which puts the decision making in the CES’ hands. The decision Israel now has to scrapple with is – is unilateral action the only action that will in reality occur in time? After all delay of two years is another 730 days of existence which is far better. In the Israeli decision, the election of the president of USA is a serious variable. With the USA MSM reporting the election is a dead heat, it makes the decision process murkier and more difficult. Much press has been made floating an October strike date. Which an October strike date requires readiness which is what needs to be the SOP right now for those involved.
Look for the CES to make the decision hard for Israel. If I was Israel I would use a three branch strategy.
1. Military readiness begins now – assume you will have to act unilaterally. Don’t talk about it, just plan for it.
2. Prepare the citizens of Israel for your action. Safety initiatives. Attack drills. Work with local councils, commerce and other organizations toward the goal of saving lives and livelihood.
3. Reach out quietly to allies and those you wish to be allies. Not big photo ops. Quiet diplomacy making the case that action is required.
This would remove the decision making from CES’ hands and put it back with Israel. Israel’s sovereignty and existence needs to be owned and managed by Israel.
Hope, Levity and Wonder 