Tag: middle east

repeating bad decisions of history

Debka article on crisis in US-Israeli relations over nuclear talks with Iran

The gist is that not only Israeli government but also a bipartisan group of US senators feel that a back channel exchanges held in privacy between O administration and Iran government leaders will result in:

  1. communication while Iran continues its nuclear program instead of freezing
  2. US pushing for some slack on sanctions as reciprocal action for Iran to freeze nuclear program
  3. ending in the result that sanctions will slack but Iran will continue in secrecy (until caught) working with its nuclear program

In private conversations, Netanyahu has said he feels cheated. By its actions the Obama administration leaves Israel with no recourse other than to grapple with the Iranian menace on its own, he has said, and be less sensitive to Washington’s wishes.

The result of tension between the two countries? O decided to send his US National Security Adviser Tom Donilon to an urgent visit to Israel Saturday, Feb. 18, for three days of talks “on regional issues including Syria and Iran.”

2 cents:
For those who have followed US and Russia cold war history what is being replayed is the Nixon, Ford and Carter years of so called diplomacy with Soviet Union over nuclear weapons. What happened during those years was the US would sign treaties or pacts with SU to eliminate certain classes of nuclear weapons technology and then the US would fulfill its end while SU didn’t. This resulted with US strategically inferior in nuclear and military defense to SU by the time Carter was president. This period of time also resulted in the Peace thru Strength program of presidential candidate Ronald Reagan. He provided the data everywhere to anyone on the decline of the US military and bad faith build up of Russia. His solution was simple > military build up in the US until the US was significantly superior understanding that such a strategy would cripple the Russian economy because it could not spend what it did not have. Then from a position of strength negotiate systemic changes of the cold war mentality which led the government selection of Gorbachev and his understanding of the need for real peace and reform in the Soviet Union. Reagan’s cornerstone approach “trust but verify”.
What is done in secret is unable to be verified so one does not act until verification is real.
O will simply bungle through and repeat the actions of Nixon-Carter which will result in Iranian buildup and technology increases while playing around at diplomacy.

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there is SOME time

From Debka: By suddenly stating, contrary to all informed estimates, that Iran’s nuclear arms program has not yet reached the point of no return, Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak implied that Israel was in no hurry to strike its nuclear facilities, a message for which Washington has been angling for months.
In a Kol Israel interview from Turkey, Thursday, Feb. 16, the defense minister’s pronouncement contradicted every reliable evaluation, including those of Military Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi on Feb. 2 and his predecessor Amos Yadlin who wrote on Jan. 26 that Iran had passed  the point of no return four or five years ago. But his words were a perfect fit for the recent assertions by US President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta that Israel had not yet made up its mind to attack Iran.
Kochavi’s information was detailed: He reported that Iran had amassed 10 kilos of 20-percent enriched uranium and four tons of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent. In his view, nothing remains to stop Iran building a bomb but a decision by its ruler. Once taken, Iran’s nuclear program could produce its first bomb or warhead by the end of this year or early 2013 and four or five by 2015.
The defense minister backtracked on a second issue: While noting that Iran was scattering or burying its nuclear facilities to “impede a surgical strike,” he avoided his previous estimate that no more than three to six months were left before all those facilities had been hidden in what he himself called “zones of immunity.”
full article here
2 cents:
So what does this mean? My guess is that this was not so much a changing of mind but Israel’s way of doing two things:
1. O and many of his government – as well as leaders in other countries – believe that the sanctions are now working and that Iran is willing to talk as long as they save face in doing it. The head of Iran does not want to be perceived by his country’s citizens as bowing to the chief Satan and little Satan (US & Israel). What he will require is a resolution that will make him look powerful and victorious in talks with the rest of the world involving the nuclear issue. By Barak begrudgingly clarifying their evaluation of the matter it tells the other countries they have some time to allow sanctions to crush the internal works of Iran and get dialogue going without the worry that overnight Israel unilaterally attacks Iran making their overtures and any dialogue worthless.
2. Building on #1 this is yet another way that Israel is going to show that Iran is actually stalling and has no serious desire to work with the Satans of the world. This in Israel’s eyes will be the final period of grace given and last chance for so-called diplomacy to resolve the Iran nuclear issue.

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Secured

I am persuaded that O and our government is doing its best to suppress this news break because of the uproar it will cause in our country. This information needs to get to the masses. Take the one minute to read the bold sections so you can get a gist of the information. This will impact our lives and safety.

Iran announced on Wednesday, Dec. 14, that it had completed the transfer of its nuclear facilities underground, including its uranium enrichment centrifuges, and that the Iranian nuclear program was now safe from US and Israeli attack. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Passive Defense Division, Gholamreza Jalali, said: “Our vulnerability in the nuclear area has reached the minimum level.” And if circumstances demand it, he said, uranium enrichment facilities would be placed in more secure locations.
Israeli Defense Minister Barak has repeatedly warned that once it was buried in underground bunkers, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure could no longer be attacked; nor would it be possible to find out what was happening there. His meaning was that that no one would know when Iran started building nuclear bombs in deep underground chambers.
Then, Monday, Dec. 12, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Strategic Affairs Moshe Ya’alon said, “Iran will acquire military nuclear capability within months.”
debkafile’s intelligence sources report that in the second part of his comment, the Iranian Guards official was referring to the first-generation P1 and P2 centrifuges which remain at the regular Natanz. It is the newer and faster IR2 and IR4 machines which are being moved to the new underground nuclear city at Fordo near Qom. When these advanced models have all been transferred to Fordo, Iran can start enriching the 20-percent grade uranium it has accumulated to 60 percent, a step before weapons grade.
This accumulated stock is sufficient for four or five nuclear bombs. Nothing but a decision by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stands between this and the final enrichment leap to the military level and the assembly of the first bomb.
Western and Israeli intelligence experts have assumed until now that Iran was held back by serious problems with the new centrifuges which arose from a shortage of the specialized aluminum alloys, tungsten-copper plates, tungsten metal powder and maraging steel for their blades, the key to smooth enrichment up to weapons-grade.
In recent weeks, US and Israeli officials have argued that Iran’s inability to manufacture these rare metals themselves or obtain them on international markets was delaying Tehran’s progress. This argument supported their claim that there was still time to stop the nuclear program before it produced a weapon.
But debkafile’s intelligence sources now report exclusively that Iran has solved this problem. Since early November, North Korea has been sending the Islamic Republic consignments of the missing metals following a deal brokered by Chinese middlemen who also helped arrange their shipment. Tehran is already in receipt of the hundreds of tons of rare metals needed to keep its high-tech centrifuges spinning uninterrupted.
Western intelligence officials conclude that Iran deliberately exaggerated the explosion Sunday, Dec. 11 at a steel plant in the central Iranian town of Yazd intending to imply that the Americans or Israelis had conducted another covert attack on the production of special metals for Iran’s nuclear industry. Iran hoped to mislead the West into believing that Iran was still stalled by lack of a regular supply of those metals, when in fact the shortage has been overcome and advanced uranium enrichment was racing ahead deep underground.
http://www.debka.com/article/21569/

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Atta boy for the two of ’em

The US leader was rebuffed last month when he demanded private guarantees that no strike would go ahead without White House notification, suggesting Israel no longer plans to “seek Washington’s permission”, sources said. The disclosure, made by insiders briefed on a top-secret meeting between America’s most senior defense chief and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s hawkish prime minister, comes amid concerns that Iran’s continuing progress towards nuclear weapons capability means the Jewish state has all but lost hope for a diplomatic solution.

On Tuesday, UN weapons inspectors released their most damning report to date into Iran’s nuclear activities, saying for the first time that the Islamic republic appeared to be building a nuclear weapon. It was with that grave possiblity in mind that Leon Panetta, the US defense secretary, flew into Israel last month on what was ostensibly a routine trip.

Officially, his brief was restricted to the Middle East peace process, but the most important part of his mission was a private meeting with Mr Netanyahu and the defense minister, Ehud Barak. Once all but a handful of trusted staff had left the room, Mr Panetta conveyed an urgent message from Barack Obama. The president, Mr Panetta said, wanted an unshakable guarantee that Israel would not carry out a unilateral military strike against Iran’s nuclear installations without first seeking Washington’s clearance.

The two Israelis were notably evasive in their response, according to sources both in Israel and the United States.

“They did not suggest that military action was being planned or was imminent, but neither did they give any assurances that Israel would first seek Washington’s permission, or even inform the White House in advance that a mission was underway,” one said.

Whole story here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8886543/Israel-refuses-to-tell-US-its-Iran-intentions.html

2 cents:

With O in office I can’t expect Israel to let him know in advance. Maybe in the very beginning of his presidency (benefit of the doubt, try to develop a good relationship) but not now. Especially as things have developed between them (remember comments caught last week with the open-mic?)/ China & Russia are roadblocking stricter sanctions being issued against Iran so despite the news and reminders issued in the IAEA report, things continue as they were. If you or I were an Israeli we would expect our government to protect us – true? The USA can fly thousands of drones into sovereign territories to kill people who are perceived to be enemies of our nation. Run unannounced feet on the ground missions to assassinate terrorists in sovereign nations. Do you see the hypocrisy of O?

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Verdict

Ok, I have read the IAEA report.
Understand that the report is written in such a way that you don’t have to be a nuclear engineer or whatever to get the gist of the IAEA’s assessment. Based solely on what the report states it would seem Iran needs to either admit what they are doing or at least offer plausible explanations for the discrepancies and actions reported and documented. On some of the most alarming deductions and assessments Iran has repeatedly refused to explain the matter. If I was a gambling man – no – I will take it a step better – if I was Bibi or another government official of leadership in the nation of Israel I would be getting my ducks in a row and pull the trigger on some tactical action to remedy the Iran nuclear question. As I wrote in reply to my mother this afternoon I honestly believe by this time next year someone will have made military tactical actions against Iran and for Israel’s sake I hope they did not have to act alone.

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